pb4uski
Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso) Give me a forum ...
As I have mentioned in prior posts, I bailed on stocks in March, specifically between March 17-23. I just has a feeling that this recession is going to be bad and there is too much uncertainty.
In any event, while I still want to participate in equities, I want to do so with less downside risk, even if I have to forfeit some upside potential. I was toying with buying Long-Term Equity AnticiPation Securities.. LEAPS... essentially a long-term option. I would buy LEAPS calls with a 6-month or one-year term or longer... probably on the SPY. If during the remaining term the SPY appreciates then the call would increase in value... if the SPY declines then my loss wold be limited to the cost of the option.
In the course of researching a strategy to do this I stumbled upon the Amplify Blackswan Growth & Treasury Core ETF (ticker SWAN). The ETF targets 90% of its assets in various Treasuries with an overall term of 10 years and 10% of its assets in in-the-money 6-month and 12-month SPY calls. The idea is that in times of market stress that there is often a flight to quality that increases the price of treasuries and that partially offsets the decrease in the price of the options.... and conversely, in good times the increase in the value of the options captures much of the increase in the SPY. In aggregate, they equate it to holding a portfolio of 65% treasuries and 35% SPY (I use VOO as a proxy for SPY since if I bought the S&P 500 it would be through VOO).
While the fund is only 16 months old it does seem to do the job well. There have been 6 months where the VOO has declined since the fund has been available... the average decline has been 5.87% and the average decline in SWAN has been 0.33%. Conversely, there have been 10 months where VOO has had positive returns averaging 3.63% and SWANs average returns for those same months was 1.96%.
The ER is 0.49%... more than I am used to paying but not outrageous. Interestingly, the founders of the fund were previously at Claymore and Guggenheim, the creators of the Bulletshare ETFs that many of us knew of and liked.
From the research that I have done so far, I haven't found any warts. During the market swoon in Dec 2018, SWANs first full month.... VOO declined 8.84% and SWAN declined 3.58%. During the 2019 bull market, VOO had a 31.35% return and SWAN had a 22.05% return. For YTD 2020, VOO has declined 19.58% and SWAN is UP 0.1%. For the entire 16 month period, SWAN has a average annual return of 13.08% vs -2.79% for VOO. SWANs correlation to stocks is 0.79.
In any event, I've seriously considering SWAN for my portfolio... perhaps not now but once the smoke clears and I do get in. Or alternatively, buyng some SPY LEAPS calls to provide my equity exposure.
Thoughts? Do any of you own SWAN? Or use LEAPS calls to go long on the market instead of buying equities directly?
https://amplifyetfs.com/Data/Sites/6/media/docs/Amplify_SWAN_FactSheet.pdf
https://amplifyetfs.com/swan.html
https://www.portfoliovisualizer.com...llocation3_3=33&symbol4=VGSH&allocation4_3=33
https://seekingalpha.com/article/43...ack-swan?utm_source=zacks&utm_medium=referral
In any event, while I still want to participate in equities, I want to do so with less downside risk, even if I have to forfeit some upside potential. I was toying with buying Long-Term Equity AnticiPation Securities.. LEAPS... essentially a long-term option. I would buy LEAPS calls with a 6-month or one-year term or longer... probably on the SPY. If during the remaining term the SPY appreciates then the call would increase in value... if the SPY declines then my loss wold be limited to the cost of the option.
In the course of researching a strategy to do this I stumbled upon the Amplify Blackswan Growth & Treasury Core ETF (ticker SWAN). The ETF targets 90% of its assets in various Treasuries with an overall term of 10 years and 10% of its assets in in-the-money 6-month and 12-month SPY calls. The idea is that in times of market stress that there is often a flight to quality that increases the price of treasuries and that partially offsets the decrease in the price of the options.... and conversely, in good times the increase in the value of the options captures much of the increase in the SPY. In aggregate, they equate it to holding a portfolio of 65% treasuries and 35% SPY (I use VOO as a proxy for SPY since if I bought the S&P 500 it would be through VOO).
While the fund is only 16 months old it does seem to do the job well. There have been 6 months where the VOO has declined since the fund has been available... the average decline has been 5.87% and the average decline in SWAN has been 0.33%. Conversely, there have been 10 months where VOO has had positive returns averaging 3.63% and SWANs average returns for those same months was 1.96%.
The ER is 0.49%... more than I am used to paying but not outrageous. Interestingly, the founders of the fund were previously at Claymore and Guggenheim, the creators of the Bulletshare ETFs that many of us knew of and liked.
From the research that I have done so far, I haven't found any warts. During the market swoon in Dec 2018, SWANs first full month.... VOO declined 8.84% and SWAN declined 3.58%. During the 2019 bull market, VOO had a 31.35% return and SWAN had a 22.05% return. For YTD 2020, VOO has declined 19.58% and SWAN is UP 0.1%. For the entire 16 month period, SWAN has a average annual return of 13.08% vs -2.79% for VOO. SWANs correlation to stocks is 0.79.
In any event, I've seriously considering SWAN for my portfolio... perhaps not now but once the smoke clears and I do get in. Or alternatively, buyng some SPY LEAPS calls to provide my equity exposure.
Thoughts? Do any of you own SWAN? Or use LEAPS calls to go long on the market instead of buying equities directly?
https://amplifyetfs.com/Data/Sites/6/media/docs/Amplify_SWAN_FactSheet.pdf
https://amplifyetfs.com/swan.html
https://www.portfoliovisualizer.com...llocation3_3=33&symbol4=VGSH&allocation4_3=33
https://seekingalpha.com/article/43...ack-swan?utm_source=zacks&utm_medium=referral
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