Plan for Exit 2024

[Exit 2024]

Q2 2022 update

- We finished Q2 at $2,113k, 70.4% of the original target,
NW is down by $203k in Q2 in addition to minus $45k in Q1 - year to day loss of $248k eliminated almost all last year gains and put us back to the April of 2021.

- We continue to add new money to our $401ks and HSAs, also moved most of the cash to the I-bonds utilizing gift option.

- After S&P500 reached bear market territory we started to execute our plan on downside rebalancing: for each 100 points down - move increasing amounts from bonds to stocks. We did that in 2007-2008 and again in 2020, both times it worked great for us, hoping to weather the storm same way this time also.

- We did not add much of new money to out NW during Q2 as all surpluses went to booking 2 vacations and to our RE projects.

- RE #1: in preparation to FIRE we started to update our main house and that will also include some build out project, already posted deposit with builder and scheduled to start in August.

- RE #2: we own small condo on University campus, our child was living there while in school. Now as she moved out and on her own we are preparing that place for rent. It requires some repairs and basic updates, so some cash is going there also.

- We continue to help child with student loans, just to get her ahead of the game while interest in still 0%, so hoarding cash is not our priority right now.

- Inflations is very big concern and looks like OMY more clear in the cards for us.

- We have 8Qs (?) to go...

 

[Exit 2024]

Actuals without RE vs High and Low targets.

After a terrible Q2 we have big gaps vs target path to mid 2024 FIRE:

Below Low target by $342K
Below High target by $457k

Image is clickable

 

[brokrken]

Hang in there, Exit 2024. This, too, shall pass. Let's just hope it's sooner than latet so we don't all have to keep w*rking!

 

[Love This Community]

Agree with brokrken….hang in there. I am rooting for you and hoping to follow your path of staying the course. It’s not been easy looking at balances dropping. I am using this as an opportunity to test my risk taking capability. I was around 2008 crisis but my stakes were low that it wouldn’t make a difference. This time around my stakes are high and I can only imagine how tough it must be for those that are close to retirement. All the very best!

 

[Exit 2024]

Hang in there, Exit 2024. This, too, shall pass. Let's just hope it's sooner than latet so we don't all have to keep w*rking!

brokrken, as always thanks for support, really appreciate it !!!

 

[Exit 2024]

Agree with brokrken….hang in there. I am rooting for you and hoping to follow your path of staying the course. It’s not been easy looking at balances dropping. I am using this as an opportunity to test my risk taking capability. I was around 2008 crisis but my stakes were low that it wouldn’t make a difference. This time around my stakes are high and I can only imagine how tough it must be for those that are close to retirement. All the very best!

LTC, I have the same sentiments about 2008, as I was also around but with very small amounts in the markets. On other hand that was great playground to test water, I remember how I talk myself into upping 401k contributions to the max allowed in 2008 for both of us despite market turbulence and promised to not look at balances for 6 months And that was best decision that I made Hoping that me buying now on the downtrend will have the same effect at the end

Thanks for the support, we will recover no matter what, just curios to see how long that will take to cross that red line on our chart again

 

[tbis]

Really rooting for you too, Exit 2024. My wife retired last December. She is almost 9 years older than me (I'm 55). I was hoping to potentially join her around 2024 when the bubble finally burst and now, like everyone I suppose, I am waiting to see a reversal in this market to re-evaluate where I am really at.

Sadly, I suspect I've just added at least another couple of years to my own retirement timeline. Honestly, if my life at MegaCorp hadn't become a circus of pain it would be easier to stomach, but I suppose it is what it is.

Like you and others it is a little daunting thinking about a decade or so of exchange healthcare (especially as we've had some abnormal medical bills this year - all mine!), but having DW eligible for Medicare next year will be at least one more milestone toward my own retirement!

 

[zekeboz]

@exit 2024

Great thread I’ve been following it for a while. Ironically our numbers lineup pretty closely for when to pull the cord. You may have posted it in the past but what is your expected monthly budget in retirement?

Btw - I’ve done a similar rebalance these past six months and now it’s closer to an 80/20 split with new dollars going into short term bond funds cash CDs in preparation of making the move to retirement. That re-balance has paid off handsomely these past three or so months.

Good luck

 

[Exit 2024]

tbis, hold on there, no one has crystal ball, we just need to do what is right and hope for the best. I would expect by mid of next year we will know for sure if 2024 FIRE is in the books for us or not.

 

[Exit 2024]

zekeboz, original plan was based on $90k retirement income from $2.7m investment (or $3M total NW). Current assumption is still the same but now it is absolute minimum, comfortable number that we are looking at increased to $100k from $3m invested.
Current plan is:
-- if we below $2.7 - postpone FIRE
-- between $2.7 and $3 - semi-FIRE in some form (not defined yet)
-- at or above $3 - FIRE (with option for some gigs but more just for fun)

Rebalancing really works for us also, it actually makes those downturn times more fun as I am constantly on look out for new lows

Thanks for all the comments - hope we all will get to the finish line eventually and that is not too far away

 

[readytofire]

Keep at it! I know the markets have been bad this year, but hopefully things turn around next year. You're close to the finish line and you're course correcting as needed but sticking to your general plan which is great. Keep us informed of your progress

 

[monte1022]

We were at 3.356m 01/01/2022 and now 2.988m. Pretax, post-tax, and taxable contributions come in at 9k/m. Targeting a specific number for exit sure is difficult when courting Mr. Market. FWIW, our net spend estimate is also 100k/yr. We are 56/53 and still w*rking.

I wish you luck as we are right there with you reaching for freedom.

 

[Exit 2024]

Q3 2022 update

- We finished Q3 at $2,047k, 68.2% of the original target,
NW is down by $66k in Q3 in addition to
minus $45k in Q1 and
minus $203k in Q2
Year to date total loss of $314k - eliminated almost all 2021 gains and put us back close to the December of 2020.

- We continue to add new money to our 401ks and HSAs, all directed to the stocks

- We continue to execute our plan on downside rebalancing: for each 100 points down for S&P500 - move increasing amounts from bonds to stocks.

- All new cash is going right now to help child to pay student loans in anticipation for the end of payment freeze, plus we are in the middle of 2 RE projects

- RE #1: build out for our main house is in the progress, hope to get all finished by end of the year.

- RE #2: almost done with repairs of the condo, expect to put it for the rent shortly.

- Overall still concerned with inflation and looking at 2 alternative options for FIRE: OMY or partial FIRE, no decision yet

- We have 7Qs (?) to go...

 

[Exit 2024]

readytofire really appreciate support and encouragement

monte1022 I hear you, yes, we are all in the same boat right now, but I am kind of glad that all that turmoil hit us while we are still employed and can weather it without touching nest egg. It would be much worse if happened right after FIRE.

 

[Exit 2024]

Actuals without RE vs High and Low targets.

After a terrible Q2 and red Q3 we fall way too low vs target path to mid 2024 exit.
I do not think we can get back on track to fully FIRE as planed:

Below Low target by $479K
Below High target by $617k

Image is clickable

 

[Exit 2024]

Q4 and full 2022 update

- We finished Q4 at $2,162k, 72.1% of the original target, booked green quarter with +$115k but red for the full year with -$199k. So quarter is more yellow than green actually.

-For 2022 I will be considered HCE again, so my 401k contributions will be capped for 2023. We still plan to max out all retirement accounts and both HSAs.

- RE #1: we finished our house addition - super happy how it came out but that caused us to go into negative in cash position - not happy about that at all. Original plan was to pay for it by money that were sitting in the saving account, but due to low rates I could not pass on I-bonds deal, so we had to borrow for construction, used 0% credit card for that plan pay off by end of the 2023

- RE #2: condo is rented now, after management company fees we should be netting about $1k monthly if all goes well.

- Overall still concerned about inflation and looking at 2 alternative options for FIRE: OMY or partial FIRE, no decision yet although we are leaning to OMY.

- We have 6Qs (?) to go...

 

[Exit 2024]

Actuals without RE vs High and Low targets.

2022 was brutal for our FIRE plans, we probably will not get back into range in next 6 quarters. So at least OMY is in books for us, Exit 2025

 

[Love This Community]

Nice update exit. I am thinking of picking up RE2 but with the current prices, will hold off and see if prices drop in the next couple of years. It’s good to have cash flow from diverse sources. Especially during times when equities are dropping.

 

[Bigdawg]

Actuals without RE vs High and Low targets.

2022 was brutal for our FIRE plans, we probably will not get back into range in next 6 quarters. So at least OMY is in books for us, Exit 2025

Dec of 2024 is 23 months away. We are already 11-12 months from last market highs. Historically speaking, 34-35 months is a long downturn so maybe things will be looking better in 20+ months from now. I'm rooting for you for late 2024. Good luck.

 

[Exit 2024]

Hi LTC
We are also closely watching housing prices in hopes that they will drop - want to get RE3 as a vacation home, rent it out during high demand seasons and travel there to spend some "shoulder" months. Will see if we can pull it off.

 

[Exit 2024]

Thanks Bigdawg,
I agree that in 20 months we could see a new market high and portfolio may recover nicely. Crossing my fingers, but if not - will roll with the punches

 

[Standard Staples]

I wouldn't beat yourself up too much on the 2022 results, especially with the heavy cash spend on the house. I'm boldly assuming that project added significant value, so the upside is that negative cash spend absolutely added to your true NW. Additionally, you contributed nearly $150K to your portfolio and already saw a very nice rebound in Q4.

I'm a bit more bullish on 2023 than other folks, and I say keep charging for 2024.

 

[madman]

Hi Everyone,

I am a bit late to the party but I am hoping to FIRE in 2024 as well. Spent some time reading older posts, congrats on everybody's long term progress! Currently 44, have planned to FIRE since I was in high school before FIRE term existed LOL. Back then my plan was all I needed was $1M. At the time interest rates were ~5% so at 17 I figured I could live high on the hog if I was making $50K p/y interest and never have to work again. Time and inflation changed my numbers but not the goals.

Currently work a corporate job, not terrible but it is a high stress, long hours job I have been doing many years so burnt out. I got a bit lucky with my portfolio last year and only took a -6% hit which I have made up so far this year so my numbers are fairly consistent. I am hoping to be in the ~$3.5M investments range to pull the trigger; not sure if I will make it there in 2024 but plan to try. Basic numbers are below:

401K - $1.26M
Roth 401K - $10K (just offered Roth last year, no previous access to normal Roth due to income)
Taxable Stock account - $1.025M
Deferred Comp: $135K
Home Equity: $525K
HSA: $40K
Appreciating/steady value cars: ~$350K (will sell off in 2024 to invest)
All debt minus mortgage will be paid off this year.

Look forward to seeing how we all progress towards the 2024 goal! Cheers!

 

[kgtest]

Hi Everyone,

I am a bit late to the party but I am hoping to FIRE in 2024 as well. Spent some time reading older posts, congrats on everybody's long term progress! Currently 44, have planned to FIRE since I was in high school before FIRE term existed LOL. Back then my plan was all I needed was $1M. At the time interest rates were ~5% so at 17 I figured I could live high on the hog if I was making $50K p/y interest and never have to work again. Time and inflation changed my numbers but not the goals.

Currently work a corporate job, not terrible but it is a high stress, long hours job I have been doing many years so burnt out. I got a bit lucky with my portfolio last year and only took a -6% hit which I have made up so far this year so my numbers are fairly consistent. I am hoping to be in the ~$3.5M investments range to pull the trigger; not sure if I will make it there in 2024 but plan to try. Basic numbers are below:

401K - $1.26M
Roth 401K - $10K (just offered Roth last year, no previous access to normal Roth due to income)
Taxable Stock account - $1.025M
Deferred Comp: $135K
Home Equity: $525K
HSA: $40K
Appreciating/steady value cars: ~$350K (will sell off in 2024 to invest)
All debt minus mortgage will be paid off this year.

Look forward to seeing how we all progress towards the 2024 goal! Cheers!

You are a madman! Looks like you are all set. Wish I had 350k worth of vehicles... so far I've bought cheap Camry's and always owned a pickup truck to haul/move my crap around.

I knew it was possible to FIRE in High School when I saw a neighbor do it when him and his wife turned 50. But I never had the income streams to meet my goals until I started working in IT at 26. Been making progress slowly. My aim is to FIRE at 50 in 9 yrs with 2-3MM. On track but this last year has definitely slowed me down.

 

[madman]

Thanks kgtest. Got a bit lucky with the cars by buying some that have appreciated heavily over the past 7 years. A bit of a side hobby. Sounds like you are on track for 2031! For my other investments, old saying 1st million is the hardest is very true. I started investing in stocks at 16. Was 38 when net worth passed $1M so took 22 years, took three years later to hit $2M NW and 2 years after that to hit $3M. Had some long term vesting stock options hit which was a big help but noticed the bigger gains compound as your numbers get bigger. Cheers!