Sanity check please

[bltkmt]

Hi all:

First time, long time sort of. Lost my job recently and thinking about calling it quits instead of looking for another. Have played a bit with Firecalc, and seem to get close to 100% success using the inputs below - can you let me know if you see anything that is a problem? Have not used any other calculators.

1. Age 58 (me) and 57 (DW). She is working part time but ignoring that for now.
2. $3.7 million in investable assets, split about 50/50 in taxable/non accounts
3. Assuming 35 year retirement starting now
4. Using $180k annual spend rate including taxes and health care
5. Assuming $500k inheritance in 2024.
6. Assuming $42k SS for me starting in 2033 and $16k for DW starting in 2030

Thanks in advance.

 

[statsman]

Two comments:

$180K annual spend rate is a lot. Can it go higher?

I would never assume an inheritance in planning for ER.

 

[bltkmt]

Two comments:

$180K annual spend rate is a lot. Can it go higher?

I would never assume an inheritance in planning for ER.

We live in a HCOL area. We could relocate if needed.

The inheritance is pretty established at this point. My mom is 95 and sitting on over $3 million to be split among 5 of us.

 

[NgineER]

Your wife would be eligible for half of your SS at FRA, which would give you a $5k boost I believe.

 

[pb4uski]

I used FICalc and get 99% with inheritance and 92% without.... since I assume that there is some wiggleroom to tighten your belt if needed in a $180k of spending, I think you're good to go.

https://calculator.ficalc.app?addit...gAge=60&withdrawalStrategyName=constantDollar

 

[MBAustin]

If you've thought through the items on this list and are willing to consider relocation from your HCOL, then you're probably good. Does the $180K include market-rate health insurance?

Some Important Questions to Answer

 

[bltkmt]

Are there any other calculators that I should consider using?

 

[latexman]

Use the one where your money is invested. Surely, they have one.

 

[HI Bill]

Are there any other calculators that I should consider using?

I really like these:

Marketwatch's Spending Model with Time:
https://www.marketwatch.com/calculator/retirement/retirement-planning-calculator

Rich, Broke, or Dead:
https://engaging-data.com/will-money-last-retire-early/

Monte Carlo
https://www.portfoliovisualizer.com/monte-carlo-simulation

and Variable Percentage Rate (VPW):
https://www.bogleheads.org/wiki/Variable_percentage_withdrawal

 

[RetireeRobert]

I also think you are good to go. Especially if you are flexible enough to tighten your belts and live on say, "only" $120,000 a year if need be for two, or three, or four years. Congratulations!

 

[bltkmt]

Thanks all!

 

[John the third]

I really like these:

Marketwatch's Spending Model with Time:
https://www.marketwatch.com/calculator/retirement/retirement-planning-calculator

Rich, Broke, or Dead:
https://engaging-data.com/will-money-last-retire-early/

Monte Carlo
https://www.portfoliovisualizer.com/monte-carlo-simulation

and Variable Percentage Rate (VPW):
https://www.bogleheads.org/wiki/Variable_percentage_withdrawal

The PRALANA tool is an excel file which does monte carlo simulations, too. It provides great flexibility to include income and expense amounts which change over time. The bronze version is free for a limited period of time (60 days, I think).

https://pralanaretirementcalculator.com/get-prc/

 

[AbbA]

I used FICalc and get 99% with inheritance and 92% without.... since I assume that there is some wiggleroom to tighten your belt if needed in a $180k of spending, I think you're good to go.[/url]

Has the FIREcalc been updated lately? This is a very nice presentation when I clicked on the link.

 

[rodi]

Has the FIREcalc been updated lately? This is a very nice presentation when I clicked on the link.

PB didn't use firecalc - he used FICalc.

 

[AbbA]

PB didn't use firecalc - he used FICalc.

I guess I learned about a new calculator now

 

[RetireeRobert]

I guess I learned about a new calculator now

You'd be surprised (or maybe not, if you knew me better) how often I read letters into or out of things I read. A lot of times recently, when doing crossword puzzles, I get stumped on certain clues. Until later, I happen to reread the clue and finally dawns on me, I had read it wrong and it has an entirely different meaning! Makes solving the clue so much easier when I read it correctly!

 

[Out-to-Lunch]

I guess I learned about a new calculator now

Here is an intro, with even some comments by the author: https://www.early-retirement.org/forums/f28/nother-retirement-calc-106826.html

 

[The Cosmic Avenger]

Two comments:

$180K annual spend rate is a lot. Can it go higher?

I would never assume an inheritance in planning for ER.

Agreed, I initially did my calculations without any inheritance and without SS, and only once I could get by OK without those did I start calculating the more likely outcome of having both. SS is likely to stay at 80-100% of its current benefits, but most inheritances can be wiped out or severely reduced by one bad medical issue or lawsuit. I would run projections both ways, at least.

How sure are you about your budget? One thing I like about Fidelity's retirement planner is that they have a detailed budget worksheet, where I've put in all of our current expenses so I can see whether we can afford to live at at least our current standard of living. It also lets you mark expenses as essential or not, so now that we're doing well I've put down $2K/mo for travel but not marked it as essential, as we could travel domestically to see friends and family for about that much per year if money was tight.

But it does sound like you'll have a 6% WR for the first 12 years, and 4% after that, so I think flexibility is the key. If you feel you need $180K/yr to survive, then I'd keep working a little longer.

 

[Time2]

Do you have a $1M house that you will sell to buy a $250k house in a LCOL area?

 

[gauss]

I have always liked i-orp.com, as its results help give me the confidence to pull the plug at age 47 or so.

Also, regarding:

1. Age 58 (me) and 57 (DW). She is working part time but ignoring that for now.
2. $3.7 million in investable assets, split about 50/50 in taxable/non accounts
3. Assuming 35 year retirement starting now
4. Using $180k annual spend rate including taxes and health care
5. Assuming $500k inheritance in 2024.
6. Assuming $42k SS for me starting in 2033 and $16k for DW starting in 2030

Can you confirm if the 3.7M figure includes the $500k inheritance, or is the $500k above and beyond the 3.7M number.

-gauss

 

[bltkmt]

I have always liked i-orp.com, as its results help give me the confidence to pull the plug at age 47 or so.

Also, regarding:


Can you confirm if the 3.7M figure includes the $500k inheritance, or is the $500k above and beyond the 3.7M number.

-gauss

The $3.7 million is excluding the near guaranteed inheritance.

 

[bltkmt]

Do you have a $1M house that you will sell to buy a $250k house in a LCOL area?

I am not sure of the relevance, but my house is not included in any of the numbers I presented. The house is worth about $850k and remaining mortgage is about $250k, so about $600k of net equity before selling fees. But again, not included in this analysis.

 

[ncbill]

Are there any other calculators that I should consider using?

Fidelity's...you can create a guest account, no need to be a customer.

I've found selecting "significantly worse than average" market to be the most conservative of all retirement calculators I've used.