The Electric Vehicle Thread

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Mr. Tightwad said:
Zero haggling, zero pressure to buy add-ons, no waiting around the showrooms to take your offer to their boss. All the dirty tricks to remove money from your wallet are eliminated.
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Uh, except paying $40K for the car. THAT will empty your wallet pretty quickly. YMMV of course.
 
Koolau said:
Uh, except paying $40K for the car. THAT will empty your wallet pretty quickly. YMMV of course.
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Perhaps you prefer showrooms where they try to sell you the glossy coat finish to protect the paint job. Or where they drag out the process to fatigue the buyer. It's ok if you like it, but MMV's.

Cars cost what cars cost. When you buy a Tesla, you don't have to play games during the buying process. As Daydreaming described, it's a pleasurable experience.
 
Mr. Tightwad said:
Perhaps you prefer showrooms where they try to sell you the glossy coat finish to protect the paint job. Or where they drag out the process to fatigue the buyer. It's ok if you like it, but MMV's.

Cars cost what cars cost. When you buy a Tesla, you don't have to play games during the buying process. As Daydreaming described, it's a pleasurable experience.
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No, actually, the no-showroom model is fine. I'm just not prepared to drop $40K on a ANY car - electric or ICE or hybrid. The most I've ever paid for a car (in nominal dollars) was in 2017 I paid $13K for a used Toyota RAV 4. They barely had an office let alone a show room. BUT, your point is well taken. I hate the "new car dance" at the dealer. I was only (slightly tongue in cheek) commenting on the high cost of new (and especially electric) cars. No offense intended! Aloha.
 
Mr. Tightwad said:
Tesla also has 1.3 million pre-orders for their cybertruck.
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I've lost track, but what is the current timeline for production of the Cybertruck and the Semi? How does that compare with Elon's earlier dates?

-ERD50
 
Earlier, I reported that CATL was the biggest EV battery maker, followed by Panasonic, then BYD.

As you know, Panasonic makes cells for Tesla in its Nevada Gigafactory. CATL and BYD are both Chinese companies, and are not well-known in the US. Warren Buffett has been a long-term investor in BYD.

Both CATL and BYD make LFP or LiFePO4, the "other" lithium cell that Tesla has recently used in cars produced in China, and that Musk now likes. What happened recently was that BYD announced a new type of LFP that it called a "blade" cell. I don't know what is revolutionary about it, other than it's a long skinny rectangular cell instead of a cylindrical form factor. As the cell is flat, it does not have to be rolled to insert into a round can, and perhaps it simplifies the manufacturing, but I am not sure.

On the Web, people are raving about it, and say this new cell is going to be a big game changer. It allows ease of assembly into a pack, which also has better heat shedding characteristics. Each blade cell holds the equivalent energy of 30 smaller cells used in Tesla Model 3. Hence, fewer cells will be needed.

BYD-Blade-Battery-prismatic-cells-1536x1024.jpg
 
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Here's another thing I just thought of, regarding BYD blade cell design.

All current EVs use battery packs built from lithium cells in such a way that replacing a cell is impossible to do economically. Earlier in the thread, I shared a video showing how just one defective cell in the 7000+ cells of a Tesla battery pack mandates throwing away the whole pack, and only an after-market company called Gruber could open up the pack, find the bad cell, and disable it.

The blade design of BYD looks like it would facilitate a pack design that would make it easy to open up and replace a bad cell.

And because individual cell failures seem rare, another aspect that may be more important in the days ahead is that the blade cells make it very easy to reuse the cells for energy storage. This could be cells from a worn-out pack that gives an unsatisfactory driving range, or a cell from a totaled EV. Right now, the only people who reuse a discarded EV pack are DIY hobbyists who do not mind spending the time to tear apart a pack to get at the cells. You can go on eBay and search for used packs from EVs and hybrid cars, and see what I mean.

When more EVs are on the road, and more hit the junkyard, there has to be a way to easily salvage these used EV battery packs that still have a lot of usable life left in them. We need a lot of battery storage if we want to be green. The sun does not always shine, and the wind does not blow constantly.

Does it mean Chinese ingenuity beat Yankee ingenuity? If so, I don't like it.
 
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NW-Bound said:
Here's another thing I just thought of, regarding BYD blade cell design.

All current EVs use battery packs built from lithium cells in such a way that replacing a cell is impossible to do economically. Earlier in the thread, I shared a video showing how just one defective cell in the 7000+ cells of a Tesla battery pack mandates throwing away the whole pack, and only an after-market company called Gruber could open up the pack, find the bad cell, and disable it.

The blade design of BYD looks like it would facilitate a pack design that would make it easy to open up and replace a bad cell.

And because individual cell failures seem rare, another aspect that may be more important in the days ahead is that the blade cells make it very easy to reuse the cells for energy storage. This could be cells from a worn-out pack that gives an unsatisfactory driving range, or a cell from a totaled EV. Right now, the only people who reuse a discarded EV pack are DIY hobbyists who do not mind spending the time to tear apart a pack to get at the cells. You can go on eBay and search for used packs from EVs and hybrid cars, and see what I mean.

When more EVs are on the road, and more hit the junkyard, there has to be a way to easily salvage these used EV battery packs that still have a lot of usable life left in them. We need a lot of battery storage if we want to be green. The sun does not always shine, and the wind does not blow constantly.

Does it mean Chinese ingenuity beat Yankee ingenuity? If so, I don't like it.
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These are all interesting and valid issues that will be solved at an expedited pace thanks to the need for mass EV battery production. We are in the early years of making high performance batteries. It bodes well for continued increases in battery range, safety, and cost. Tesla (a U.S. company) is one of the leaders in new battery tech.

Regarding battery storage, the next big push for battery use seems to be the VPP (Virtual Power Plant) idea. This is the move to give every home/business a battery back-up to cover for peak power issues and outages. Right now, it is way too expensive, but as battery cost and capacity improve, it could become commonplace. This video covers the concept:

 
^^^^ Tesla VPP - just a concept now - is worth more than its auto business?

It's such a preposterous idea that I could not get past the video headline.

Tesla is running into battery supply constraint. Is the pilot plant to build the new larger 4650 cell up and running? For energy storage, the chemistry that is most suitable is LFP, but Tesla is not learning to make that. Panasonic and LG Chem are also not making LFP, not that I can see. Meanwhile, Chinese manufacturers, large and small, are cranking out LFP cells for EVs and energy storage like there's no tomorrow.

The above video sounds like a shill for Tesla. It's ridiculous.
 
NW-Bound said:
^^^^ Tesla VPP - just a concept now - is worth more than its auto business?

It's such a preposterous idea that I could not get past the video headline.

Tesla is running into battery supply constraint. Is the pilot plant to build the new larger 4650 cell up and running? For energy storage, the chemistry that is most suitable is LFP, but Tesla is not learning to make that. Panasonic and LG Chem are also not making LFP, not that I can see. Meanwhile, Chinese manufacturers, large and small, are cranking out LFP cells for EVs and energy storage like there's no tomorrow.

The above video sounds like a shill for Tesla. It's ridiculous.
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What is preposterous? The concept? The idea that battery tech will continue to make cheaper and more powerful batteries?

We are talking about the future and Tesla will be just one participant in that future. If, as you have correctly pointed out, battery storage is the answer to useful solar and wind electricity, then do you have any doubt that the VPP idea won't be heavily pushed and subsidized by governments around the world going forward?
 
oneill225 said:
What is preposterous? The concept? The idea that battery tech will continue to make cheaper and more powerful batteries?

We are talking about the future and Tesla will be just one participant in that future. If, as you have correctly pointed out, battery storage is the answer to useful solar and wind electricity, then do you have any doubt that the VPP idea won't be heavily pushed and subsidized by governments around the world going forward?
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Of course, I have always thought that battery storage will be a big part in the world's push to go green, and the battery production constraint is the big factor. But when someone uses every occasion to push the idea that Tesla will be the big winner in every sector that it gets into, it is obviously a shill to sell stocks, and detracts from the theme.

CATL, Panasonic, BYD, and LG Chem are the 4 largest battery makers. Only CATL and BYD, the Chinese makers, are big in LFP, and in fact I don't think they make the type that uses cobalt and nickel. On the other hand, I have not seen or heard of LFP cells made by Panasonic and LG Chem.

Tesla is still building its own plant to make the new larger 4680 cell. I was interested enough about battery to watch its Battery Day presentation last year, and saw that it was planning to still use the same battery chemistry, but with some tweaks to the ingredients. No LFP. And what has been the progress there?

Since the Battery Day, Musk has raved about LFP since Tesla started to use it in the China factory. He sounded like he knew of LFP for the first time. Where has he been? As is well-known, LFP has a long life and is much safer than the other chemistries, but its main detraction is more weight and size. So, what is the trade off in range with the Chinese Tesla cars? That's what I have not been able to find out.

In any event, even the Japanese and Korean companies are behind the Chinese in LFP battery production, and I don't like it. Not with the increasingly aggressive stance of the PRC government towards other countries. I would not mind seeing Tesla or any other non-Chinese makers cranking out lots of batteries, but I want to see proof, not hype.
 
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NW-Bound said:
Of course, I have always thought that battery storage will be a big part in the world's push to go green, and the battery production constraint is the big factor. But when someone uses every occasion to push the idea that Tesla will be the big winner in every sector that it gets into, it is obviously a shill to sell stocks, and detracts from the theme.

CATL, Panasonic, BYD, and LG Chem are the 4 largest battery makers. Only CATL and BYD, the Chinese makers, are big in LFP, and in fact I don't think they make the type that uses cobalt and nickel. On the other hand, I have not seen or heard of LFP cells made by Panasonic and LG Chem.

Tesla is still building its own plant to make the new larger 4680 cell. I was interested enough about battery to watch its Battery Day presentation last year, and saw that it was planning to still use the same battery chemistry, but with some tweaks to the ingredients. No LFP. And what has been the progress there?

Since the Battery Day, Musk has raved about LFP since Tesla started to use it in the China factory. He sounded like he knew of LFP for the first time. Where has he been? As is well-known, LFP has a long life and is much safer than the other chemistries, but its main detraction is more weight and size. So, what is the trade off in range with the Chinese Tesla cars? That's what I have not been able to find out.

In any event, even the Japanese and Korean companies are behind the Chinese in LFP battery production, and I don't like it. Not with the increasingly aggressive stance of the PRC government towards other countries. I would not mind seeing Tesla or any other non-Chinese makers cranking out lots of batteries, but I want to see proof, not hype.
Click to expand...

I don't really care what the battery chemistry looks like. That will change over time, as dictated by the science, resources and market demand. Very few consumers care about the chemical makeup of their battery, only that it does a good job.

Tesla will be a "big winner" in battery production. That does not mean that they will be the only winner. I think it is fair to give them the lion's share of battery "hype" however, since Tesla is the company that started this whole shift to viable mass EV sales.

Every battery maker is scrambling to ramp up production, including Tesla. What more proof do you need than the two new battery plants Tesla is building in Berlin and Austin? By the way, this is a great time to by mining stocks like Vale, BHP and RIO. All are taking big hits today.
 
oneill225 said:
I don't really care what the battery chemistry looks like. That will change over time, as dictated by the science, resources and market demand. Very few consumers care about the chemical makeup of their battery, only that it does a good job.
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That's correct. And right now, LFP is proven to be much safer than the nickel/cobalt type, which explodes if punctured, heated, or overcharged. Until someone comes up with something better, people are paying attention to LFP, Musk included.

Tesla will be a "big winner" in battery production. That does not mean that they will be the only winner. I think it is fair to give them the lion's share of battery "hype" however, since Tesla is the company that started this whole shift to viable mass EV sales.
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Tesla definitely started the EV industry. However, it has been using cells made by Panasonic, and assembles them into packs. Tesla has shown expertise there too, as the Chevy Bolt has shown more of a problem with battery fires.

In terms of making the cell itself, Tesla is developing a new production method to make its new 4680 cell, the so called "dry method", which promises a lower cost of production. It bought Maxwell, a supercapacitor maker, just for the latter's dry coating patents and methods, but Musk said that it did not work out for mass production and needed a lot of further developments. It is still not a sure thing. I am very interested to see the progress on this.

Every battery maker is scrambling to ramp up production, including Tesla. What more proof do you need than the two new battery plants Tesla is building in Berlin and Austin? By the way, this is a great time to by mining stocks like Vale, BHP and RIO. All are taking big hits today.
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It is true that everybody is gearing up for more batteries, not just Tesla. I have not followed the news with Tesla battery plants to see if that's Tesla making its own cell, or in partnership with a cell maker like the partnership with Panasonic with the existing Nevada plant.

VW, Chevrolet, Ford and other car makers are scrambling to secure contracts with battery makers to lock up their supplies. Musk said that however Tesla's own battery process works out, Tesla would still need to buy cells from other vendors for the foreseeable future. Sounds to me like the sure winners are the existing cell makers, more than the car makers. It's the same as the gold diggers vs. the shovel and pickaxe makers.
 
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NW-Bound said:
Sounds to me like the sure winners are the existing cell makers, more than the car makers. It's the same as the gold diggers vs. the shovel and pickaxe makers.
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Give it time. 50 years ago, we were told that oil was about to run-out and that the middle-east had a strangle-hold on oil production. Turns-out that there is plenty of oil (and natural gas) right here in the U.S. Of course, we are now trying to give the market back to the middle-east.

Trying to predict battery tech and production 20 years from now is just a big guessing game, at this point.
 
oneill225 said:
Give it time. 50 years ago, we were told that oil was about to run-out and that the middle-east had a strangle-hold on oil production. Turns-out that there is plenty of oil (and natural gas) right here in the U.S. Of course, we are now trying to give the market back to the middle-east.

Trying to predict battery tech and production 20 years from now is just a big guessing game, at this point.
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Sure. That's why I am not putting any money into any car maker, or even cell makers now. Can't buy stock of the Chinese cell makers anyway.

The technology is fascinating to watch. And that's what I do.
 
NW-Bound said:
.... Since the Battery Day, Musk has raved about LFP since Tesla started to use it in the China factory. He sounded like he knew of LFP for the first time. Where has he been? As is well-known, LFP has a long life and is much safer than the other chemistries, but its main detraction is more weight and size. So, what is the trade off in range with the Chinese Tesla cars? That's what I have not been able to find out. ...
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I'm curious about this as well. I didn't easily find apple-apple specs, but what I found seemed to show equal or better range for the Chinese Teslas with LiFePO4?

Is there a difference in the test conditions for China? Or maybe due to the safety/ruggedness of the LiFePO4 cells, Tesla pushes them harder? Tesla batteries have so far proved to be very durable, very little degradation over time. That may be due to an algorithm that stretches the low/high limits with age, treating the battery gently at first, then wringing more and more out of it as it ages, masking the degradation (and I don't mean that in a deceptive way, but a very clever engineering way). But maybe they figured they could be a bit less conservative with the LiFePO4?

-ERD50
 
ERD50 said:
I'm curious about this as well. I didn't easily find apple-apple specs, but what I found seemed to show equal or better range for the Chinese Teslas with LiFePO4?

Is there a difference in the test conditions for China? Or maybe due to the safety/ruggedness of the LiFePO4 cells, Tesla pushes them harder? Tesla batteries have so far proved to be very durable, very little degradation over time. That may be due to an algorithm that stretches the low/high limits with age, treating the battery gently at first, then wringing more and more out of it as it ages, masking the degradation (and I don't mean that in a deceptive way, but a very clever engineering way). But maybe they figured they could be a bit less conservative with the LiFePO4?

-ERD50
Click to expand...


Your theory is sound. LFP also tolerates 100% charge/discharge without severe loss of cell longevity, while the other chemistries would degrade more severely. The advantage of higher energy density of the other chemistries is toast, if you cannot make full use of the battery capacity, in order to prevent battery degradation during the car warranty period.

If all things taken together, LFP can provide the same range as the more expensive chemistries, then Panasonic and LG Chem would have a lot to worry about. Cheaper, safer, longer life with LFP. What else does one need?
 
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EV Sales in Europe

An interesting video on recent EV sales in Europe. Keep in mind that most of these Tesla cars are being imported from the China plant.

In a few months, Tesla's Berlin plant will be operational, freeing up those China exports for sales elsewhere around the world. The prediction that legacy car makers could just turn-on EV production and kill Tesla is not playing out.

 
Just to (perhaps) change the subject slightly - but still well within the purview of the Electric Vehicle Thread: It does appear that the ever improving battery technology, actual EV car technology, regulatory stance and especially the general public's view of EVs has aligned in such a way that Yes, Virginia, we are going green. We ARE headed for the twilight of the ICE engine. I wouldn't have believed it 10 years ago, but I think I do now.

Besides the technical issues (batteries, self driving and such) that we often talk about, I KNOW we have touched on the practical issues of providing enough electricity to power all those new electric vehicles. Does anyone have access to a sight or paper that addresses a "road map" of how we go from burning (in the USA) 8 million barrels of oil per day to power ICE cars to the equivalent electricity to power EVs? And, then to the rest of the world - how do we replace all that oil with flowing electrons? Cali has been turning off portions of the grids every time the wind blows to prevent grounding out aging high-tension lines that cause forest fires. How do we supply electricity (assuming we can generate it) over such a fragile infrastructure?

I realize that, though the curve is increasing (number of EVs being produced) we aren't any place close to a critical electricity shortage in most places - yet. But, already, states are trying to figure how to just get their "fair share" of road taxes from EVs. I think the electricity question is much bigger and could sneak up on us - especially since "electricity" is already considered "green" since, after all, it CAN be produced by windmills and solar panels. So EVERYTHING will eventually be run by electricity if we have any hope of becoming green. Heavy earth movers (maybe tethered to long "extension cords at first), construction equipment, domestic/industrial heating, etc. etc. will consume vast amounts of electricity. Where will it all come from - and more importantly, is anyone planning for the "big change?"

IIRC, world oil usage is something close to 100 million bbl/day. Add coal and natural gas, that's a lot of energy to replace with electricity - especially if we only use "green" generation.

I'm just wondering if anyone really has thought how we "get there" or if folks are just all doing their own thing when it comes to the greening of the Earth. Perhaps this is more of a musing than a real question. But, talk of EVs makes me think along these lines from time to time. YMMV
 
Koolau said:
Just to (perhaps) change the subject slightly - but still well within the purview of the Electric Vehicle Thread: It does appear that the ever improving battery technology, actual EV car technology, regulatory stance and especially the general public's view of EVs has aligned in such a way that Yes, Virginia, we are going green. We ARE headed for the twilight of the ICE engine. I wouldn't have believed it 10 years ago, but I think I do now.

Besides the technical issues (batteries, self driving and such) that we often talk about, I KNOW we have touched on the practical issues of providing enough electricity to power all those new electric vehicles. Does anyone have access to a sight or paper that addresses a "road map" of how we go from burning (in the USA) 8 million barrels of oil per day to power ICE cars to the equivalent electricity to power EVs? And, then to the rest of the world - how do we replace all that oil with flowing electrons? Cali has been turning off portions of the grids every time the wind blows to prevent grounding out aging high-tension lines that cause forest fires. How do we supply electricity (assuming we can generate it) over such a fragile infrastructure?

I realize that, though the curve is increasing (number of EVs being produced) we aren't any place close to a critical electricity shortage in most places - yet. But, already, states are trying to figure how to just get their "fair share" of road taxes from EVs. I think the electricity question is much bigger and could sneak up on us - especially since "electricity" is already considered "green" since, after all, it CAN be produced by windmills and solar panels. So EVERYTHING will eventually be run by electricity if we have any hope of becoming green. Heavy earth movers (maybe tethered to long "extension cords at first), construction equipment, domestic/industrial heating, etc. etc. will consume vast amounts of electricity. Where will it all come from - and more importantly, is anyone planning for the "big change?"

IIRC, world oil usage is something close to 100 million bbl/day. Add coal and natural gas, that's a lot of energy to replace with electricity - especially if we only use "green" generation.

I'm just wondering if anyone really has thought how we "get there" or if folks are just all doing their own thing when it comes to the greening of the Earth. Perhaps this is more of a musing than a real question. But, talk of EVs makes me think along these lines from time to time. YMMV
Click to expand...

In the short-term (10-20 years) most of the new power will come from new natural gas electricity generators. Even CA will be forced to build these new plants or import electricity from neighboring states at very high cost.
I think it is also possible that we will see renewed interest in nuclear energy, as well. Here, in the Pacific Northwest, we have lots of hydro-electric.

The idea that the current grid will remain stagnant as it nears capacity is not realistic. Each state will need to figure it out over time and they will. Where there is demand, there will be supply.
 
The U.K. is having power shortages with their switch to wind power due to the North Sea winds not blowing enough to keep up with power demands. I read that the U.K. has started bringing mothballed coal fired plants back into service to add power. I believe they have some natural gas fired generators that are supplied with Russian gas.

I also saw an article where Lucid's car (one of their models) that is in production is rated by EPA at 520 miles per charge, max.
 
Koolau said:
IIRC, world oil usage is something close to 100 million bbl/day. Add coal and natural gas, that's a lot of energy to replace with electricity - especially if we only use "green" generation.

I'm just wondering if anyone really has thought how we "get there" or if folks are just all doing their own thing when it comes to the greening of the Earth. Perhaps this is more of a musing than a real question. But, talk of EVs makes me think along these lines from time to time. YMMV
Click to expand...

As with so many serious matters, the public attitude looks to be "we will deal with the problem when it happens".

Why should it be any different than other crises that happened, such as SS shortfall, homelessness issues, subprime meltdown, hurricane evacuation, pandemic preparation, power grid inadequacy, etc...?

So, as with all the above problems, we have to be prepared to deal with it as individuals. We can't expect the government to figure it out. I am sure there are thinkers who look into these problems, but they don't have the authority to enact legislation to take preplanned measures. It's way too tough to deal with all the political ramifications. There are too many opposing factions to come to a consensus. Businesses have a lot of smart people, but they are too busy to apply their smart for personal gains, namely to get market shares and to sell stocks. It's extremely naive to expect altruism from business people.

It is tough for me to know what to do with the potential water shortage, but about electricity shortage causing brownouts, we do not have a problem here in AZ yet, but I am equipped to deal with it. I may want to buy a portable generator to supplement my solar+battery system, and that's really about all that I need.
 
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oneill225 said:
In the short-term (10-20 years) most of the new power will come from new natural gas electricity generators. Even CA will be forced to build these new plants or import electricity from neighboring states at very high cost.
I think it is also possible that we will see renewed interest in nuclear energy, as well. Here, in the Pacific Northwest, we have lots of hydro-electric.

The idea that the current grid will remain stagnant as it nears capacity is not realistic. Each state will need to figure it out over time and they will. Where there is demand, there will be supply.
Click to expand...

Yes, some areas in the US have a lot of hydro, but there are no plans that I know of to add much more of it (most usable sites have already been tapped). The 'run of the river' types don't really produce much power overall, and have their own environmental issues. And some existing hydro plants are under pressure to close, due to other environmental impacts. And since EVs would be adding to the present demand, hydro won't help with that.

I also hope we see more interest in nuclear, but that still seems to be an uphill battle due to costs and public fear.

Natural gas (supplemented by wind/solar) seems to be the path, but aren't a lot of places making plans for zero fossil by 20XX? My bet is those plans will be modified when the reality hits (and the politicians that passed those mandates are long out of office).

-ERD50
 
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