The Electric Vehicle Thread

[ERD50]

...
That is one reason why coal prices have plunged over the years and coal mining has declined. It wasn't the govt. or some renewable energy advocates getting these old mines or these plants closed. ...

Sure it is. Either directly or indirectly. If the govt regulations make a coal plant unprofitable, then the owner decides to close it. But it was due to govt influence.

https://www.wbez.org/stories/whats-...rgy-bill/84a3d48d-e82c-45f9-add3-200923f1fab2

Which might be the right thing to do, I'll not weigh in on that matter, just trying to set the economics of it straight.

-ERD50

 

[Zathras]

What do you mean by "basically off grid"?

I'm guessing that means your production offsets your consumption? That's all well and good, but it's a long, long way from being actually off grid.

Or do you have enough battery back up to take you through nights and days of overcast and/or low wind? Even if that's the case, getting to that level mid winter will take not just a little more of everything, but a lot more of everything, to get to the levels of reliability of the present grid in most areas.

So yes, it requires planning. And lots of $$$$ in solar, wind and storage. Easy to say, not so easy to realize.

-ERD50

You are close.
May-October we draw no power from the grid 99% of the time.
Our batteries provide all the power we use overnight and on overcast days.
Although, most overcast days we still produce a good chunk, if not all of our power needs.

Annually we do offset our grid draws with production, but we are not off grid. Supplying renewable energy to one or more or our neighbors is also a nice fringe benefit;-)

Solar is getting cheaper and cheaper. Batteries are as well, although they aren’t as competitive as solar is yet.
And yes, we charge our Tesla’s completely on solar while in town during the spring, summer & fall.
We try to do so in the winter, but that is not always possible.
Not possible for everyone, but it is for some.

 

[NW-Bound]

I believe in a lot of cases, when old power plants are retired, it's a private entity determining that the economics don't work any more.

So on an operating basis, old coal and nuclear plants were becoming uncompetitive compared to wind and solar. It's hard to compete when these don't have fuel costs.

That is one reason why coal prices have plunged over the years and coal mining has declined. It wasn't the govt. or some renewable energy advocates getting these old mines or these plants closed...

Wind and solar energy is so cheap when the sun shines and the wind blows. What the UK is finding out now is, it has to fire up an old coal plant because the wind dies out.

And Germany had to sign some contracts to give money to a few old German coal plants for contingency, just so they will stick around instead of being torn down.

I like my solar set up, but I know that I need the grid to back me up when my production runs short. What does the grid use for backup, when its green energy source happens to be short?

Oh yes, it can be done, but it takes planning, and money. I am not sure that legislators are technical enough to know about all the ramifications.

 

[NW-Bound]

You are close.
May-October we draw no power from the grid 99% of the time.
Our batteries provide all the power we use overnight and on overcast days.
Although, most overcast days we still produce a good chunk, if not all of our power needs.

Annually we do offset our grid draws with production, but we are not off grid. Supplying renewable energy to one or more or our neighbors is also a nice fringe benefit;-)

Solar is getting cheaper and cheaper. Batteries are as well, although they aren’t as competitive as solar is yet.
And yes, we charge our Tesla’s completely on solar while in town during the spring, summer & fall.
We try to do so in the winter, but that is not always possible.
Not possible for everyone, but it is for some.

Yes, it is possible. It only costs money.

You and I have money. Other people may not.

To what extent should the government be responsible to ensure continuity of service to the citizenry? We cannot make utilities do it. They are a business, and cannot operate at a loss.

Only the government can subsidize the necessary backup plans to be sure that there will be no blackouts. And having seen fiascos in California, and even in Texas the last winter, I don't have hope that our high-esteemed legislators in various states would know and could do better.

 

[explanade]

Wind and solar energy is so cheap when the sun shines and the wind blows. What the UK is finding out now is, it has to fire up an old coal plant because the wind dies out.

And Germany had to sign some contracts to give money to a few old German coal plants for contingency, just so they will stick around instead of being torn down.

I like my solar set up, but I know that I need the grid to back me up when my production runs short. What does the grid use for backup, when its green energy source happens to be short?

Oh yes, it can be done, but it takes planning, and money. I am not sure that legislators are technical enough to know about all the ramifications.

My point is, at national or global levels, we may need fossil fuel and nuclear plants until wind/solar storage becomes cheap enough and widely deployed.

However, companies are making a lot of decisions about individual plants and they're opting not to continue operating these plants, because they don't think they can be competitive on operating costs.

Sure they can assume that there will have to be contingent power sources because of weather variability for wind and solar but can they predict how much capacity will be required because of unfavorable weather?

Are they willing to gamble resources on them being able to sell a certain amount of power per year when wind and solar aren't available?

Or deploy new ones in the case of nuclear.

 

[NW-Bound]

My point is, at national or global levels, we may need fossil fuel and nuclear plants until wind/solar storage becomes cheap enough and widely deployed.

However, companies are making a lot of decisions about individual plants and they're opting not to continue operating these plants, because they don't think they can be competitive on operating costs.

Sure they can assume that there will have to be contingent power sources because of weather variability for wind and solar but can they predict how much capacity will be required because of unfavorable weather?

Are they willing to gamble resources on them being able to sell a certain amount of power per year when wind and solar aren't available?

Or deploy new ones in the case of nuclear.

Right. You and I are in agreement. Perhaps we cross posted.

Per my post above, the green policy and contingency plan for backup power sources has to be ordered and paid for by the government. We cannot expect utilities to assume the cost and risk of maintaining power plants "just in case".

At the same time, there has to be a way to curb demand when there is a shortage. I suggested a smart load controller for every home in an earlier post.

You cannot count on people to volunteer to reduce power usage when this action is required. We already cannot count on them to not hoard TP or hand sanitizer, so there's no hope of telling them to not plug in their EV when there's a risk of brownout. They will think, heck I need my EV fully charged in case I have to make a run for my life.

 

[ejman]

Not to worry. Fusion power will come thru in the nick of time. Power too cheap to meter.

 

[ERD50]

You are close.
May-October we draw no power from the grid 99% of the time.
Our batteries provide all the power we use overnight and on overcast days.
Although, most overcast days we still produce a good chunk, if not all of our power needs.

Annually we do offset our grid draws with production, but we are not off grid. Supplying renewable energy to one or more or our neighbors is also a nice fringe benefit;-)

Solar is getting cheaper and cheaper. Batteries are as well, although they aren’t as competitive as solar is yet.
And yes, we charge our Tesla’s completely on solar while in town during the spring, summer & fall.
We try to do so in the winter, but that is not always possible.
Not possible for everyone, but it is for some.

Thanks, that sounds good.

The point I'm making is getting to 99.9% levels in winter ( ~ 1 hour shutdown each month) takes a lot more source and a lot more storage.

I'm guessing your solar production drops about in half in Dec/Jan vs June/July? And the sites I've monitored near me have seen solar drop to near zero for a week at a time with a moderate snow. Unless you can rake off your panels, that's a long time to cover with storage/wind. Clearing the panels doesn't seem to get done on large installations.

Couple that with EVs getting poorer miles per kWh in cold weather, and the EV situation would make it a bit worse.

I'll mention one somewhat offsetting factor: if we are going to 'over-install' solar to help get through low solar times and to lessen the dependency on storage, we can tilt those panels more towards optimizing the winter sun angle. At that point, we'd be over-producing in summer anyhow, so why not? That would also have the benefit of a steeper angle, and snow would clear off faster.

We could do adjustable angle frames, but the data I've seen shows it to be a breakeven at best (which is why we don't see a lot of it!). That's surprising to me, but as solar panel costs come down, the metal and labor for the frames probably won't, so this approach will probably keep losing out moving forward.

-ERD50

 

[Alan]

I am finally going to know someone in person who owns an EV. My sister and her husband have a Nissan Leaf on order, delivery in 3 months. BIL has a 100 mile daily round trip commute and spends £222/mo on fuel and the car payment is going to be £140/month which is their main justification for going electric. They have never owned a new car so that is really exciting for them. They also never drive long distances on vacations plus they have a second car.

I’m really pleased for them as we would love to have an electric car, but we only own one car and mostly drive long distances to go holiday and visit relatives and the infrastructure in the UK is a long way short of adequate for us not to have range anxiety when planning trips.

 

[brucethebroker]

I’m really pleased for them as we would love to have an electric car, but we only own one car and mostly drive long distances to go holiday and visit relatives and the infrastructure in the UK is a long way short of adequate for us not to have range anxiety when planning trips.

On the topic of range anxiety when planning trips: years ago I had a secretary who, with DH, owned two cars, both "beaters" with max miles on them-all they could afford-yet they took 2-3 "driving vacations" each year. I asked how they could take driving vacations without a semi-dependable car. "We rent a car for vacations-no worries". In her case, driving everyday beaters to reduce costs and renting a car a couple of times a year was a good work around. Certainly opened my eyes to the possibilities.

 

[braumeister]

I finally got to try out a real EV and had my eyes opened. I had been kind of lusting after a Tesla Model Y ever since it came out, and was able to rent one on our trip last week. Having it for three full days to put it through its paces was an eye opener for me, and I no longer want one.

The nav system is awesome, and I was hugely impressed by how smart it was. A real pleasure to use. Some of the other features were more difficult, although I was getting more comfortable with them by the third day. It was easy to understand why there have been complaints about the "overly complex touchscreen" since that's how you control everything about the car. Just takes some getting used to, and I probably would have been comfortable with it after a week or so.

What got me though was the more physical aspects. Compared to my current car, the cabin was narrower (DW was quite vocal about that), the seats far less comfortable, the ride incredibly loud (noisy), and the suspension very stiff and harsh. I could feel every little irregularity in the road. I found out later that it was the "performance" model, so that would explain some of the stiff ride, but still it was unpleasant.

Bottom line, I like my current car so much better that I'm no longer interested in Teslas. So I still understand why people like them, but they are obviously not for everyone.

 

[NW-Bound]

I am finally going to know someone in person who owns an EV. My sister and her husband have a Nissan Leaf on order, delivery in 3 months. BIL has a 100 mile daily round trip commute and spends £222/mo on fuel and the car payment is going to be £140/month which is their main justification for going electric...

Do they have available the cheap electricity from wind power at night, same as what you have at your place?

It's a win-win situation when one manages to charge his EV at night on wind power, or in the morning on solar power. That helps consume the generated energy when it's most abundant, and to avoid competing with other uses.

 

[Alan]

Do they have available the cheap electricity from wind power at night, same as what you have at your place?

It's a win-win situation when one manages to charge his EV at night on wind power, or in the morning on solar power. That helps consume the generated energy when it's most abundant, and to avoid competing with other uses.

Exactly. They don't have solar panels like we do but do have access to the agile pricing so cheap overnight electricity. Even if they had solar panels they both work so would predominantly be charging the car overnight anyway. In the winter months when the storms are blowing they'll even get times when the electricity prices go negative and they will get paid to charge their car.

 

[oneill225]

Yes, it is possible. It only costs money.

You and I have money. Other people may not.

To what extent should the government be responsible to ensure continuity of service to the citizenry? We cannot make utilities do it. They are a business, and cannot operate at a loss.

Only the government can subsidize the necessary backup plans to be sure that there will be no blackouts. And having seen fiascos in California, and even in Texas the last winter, I don't have hope that our high-esteemed legislators in various states would know and could do better.

I think you have it backwards.

States like CA are actively trying to regulate fossil-fuel electric generators out of business in favor of solar and wind. Across the country, the federal government has succeeded in regulating coal power nearly out of existence. The remedy for more natural gas generated electricity is simply for the government to get out of the way; which they will if their politicians want to stay in power. No citizenry will tolerate blackouts for long.

 

[Out-to-Lunch]

The Texas electricity market is very lightly regulated (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Deregulation_of_the_Texas_electricity_market)

The problem that occurred in Texas is widely regarded to be the result of too little regulation. (One example: Bloomberg.)

 

[oneill225]

The Texas electricity market is very lightly regulated (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Deregulation_of_the_Texas_electricity_market)

The problem that occurred in Texas is widely regarded to be the result of too little regulation. (One example: Bloomberg.)

The Texas failure was due more to incompetence and an extreme weather event than on regulation. More government regulation is rarely the best answer. It is just a way for politicians to act like they are doing something (whether it actually helps is a secondary concern).

Regardless, if more electricity is needed to avoid regular blackouts, then the politicians and regulators in states like CA will be forced to back-off on their desire to kill fossil fuel electric generators; at least until solar, wind, and batteries can provide enough electricity without fossil fuel sources. If they do not, they will not be in office.

 

[Out-to-Lunch]

Stating something forcefully does not make it so. We will have to agree to disagree on whether requiring winterization of public utilities could have averted the TX freeze and saved hundreds of lives.

 

[explanade]

Wind is blowing and sun is shining in the UK again. Apparently up to 65% of power generated in the country comes from renewables.

 

[explanade]

Stating something forcefully does not make it so. We will have to agree to disagree on whether requiring winterization of public utilities could have averted the TX freeze and saved hundreds of lives.

Yeah they had an event 10-15 years ago of grid failure and they produced a report to winterize and make changes.

Little or none of the recommendations were acted on apparently in the past decade.

 

[oneill225]

Stating something forcefully does not make it so. We will have to agree to disagree on whether requiring winterization of public utilities could have averted the TX freeze and saved hundreds of lives.

Agreed to disagree.

Producing electricity is pretty simple and natural gas is plentiful. The impulse to force, through heavy government regulation, solar and wind into the mix has created the rolling black-outs in CA and contributed to the TX grid collapse. The era of green energy will come, but let's not pretend that it is even close to being viable today.

 

[oneill225]

Yeah they had an event 10-15 years ago of grid failure and they produced a report to winterize and make changes.

Little or none of the recommendations were acted on apparently in the past decade.

I think that falls within the realm of incompetence.

 

[NW-Bound]

I think you have it backwards.

States like CA are actively trying to regulate fossil-fuel electric generators out of business in favor of solar and wind. Across the country, the federal government has succeeded in regulating coal power nearly out of existence. The remedy for more natural gas generated electricity is simply for the government to get out of the way; which they will if their politicians want to stay in power. No citizenry will tolerate blackouts for long.

The Texas failure was due more to incompetence and an extreme weather event than on regulation. More government regulation is rarely the best answer. It is just a way for politicians to act like they are doing something (whether it actually helps is a secondary concern).

Regardless, if more electricity is needed to avoid regular blackouts, then the politicians and regulators in states like CA will be forced to back-off on their desire to kill fossil fuel electric generators; at least until solar, wind, and batteries can provide enough electricity without fossil fuel sources. If they do not, they will not be in office.

I have been looking at how Germany is handling the increasing dependence on renewable energy. They still need lots of coal and natural gas. Their government seems to take a more active role than a laisser-faire attitude to arrange for backup power sources.

Maybe CA will do it better due to more favorable local conditions for wind and solar power. CA will need tons of utility-scale batteries. More electricity is needed, not just for future EVs, but also for residential use as they are trying to phase out nat gas. CA homes still use a lot of natural gas for cooking and heating. The percentage of CA homes using nat gas is higher than several other states, Arizona included. It was surprising to me.

It will be interesting to watch.

 

[NW-Bound]

I stated earlier that it would be naive to expect people to reduce their electric usage during a shortage crisis. And the clearest recent example is the hoarding of TP and hand sanitizer.

And it so happened that last night I read about a TP run at Costco again. What the heck! I had to look at the date of the article to be sure that it was not old news. Another pandemic breakout that I do not know about? What's going on?

How are you going to stop people from topping off their EV at the hint of a shortage or news of a rolling black out?

Man, I'd better seriously start looking into increasing the generation and storage capacity of my home solar system.

 

[Texas Proud]

Right. You and I are in agreement. Perhaps we cross posted.

Per my post above, the green policy and contingency plan for backup power sources has to be ordered and paid for by the government. We cannot expect utilities to assume the cost and risk of maintaining power plants "just in case".

At the same time, there has to be a way to curb demand when there is a shortage. I suggested a smart load controller for every home in an earlier post.

You cannot count on people to volunteer to reduce power usage when this action is required. We already cannot count on them to not hoard TP or hand sanitizer, so there's no hope of telling them to not plug in their EV when there's a risk of brownout. They will think, heck I need my EV fully charged in case I have to make a run for my life.

Actually you are a bit wrong... the utility company does have backup plants 'just in case'... I have a friend who works at one...



I know the first 15 years they never produced any electricity but did sell steam to business along the ship channel... it was years ago but he said they spent $20 mill to refurbish the turbines even though not used...


From what I understand they had it to lower the cost of buying electricity from other uses as they could claim they did not need it... not sure about this but it was something like this...

 

[NW-Bound]

Actually you are a bit wrong... the utility company does have backup plants 'just in case'... I have a friend who works at one...

I know the first 15 years they never produced any electricity but did sell steam to business along the ship channel... it was years ago but he said they spent $20 mill to refurbish the turbines even though not used...

From what I understand they had it to lower the cost of buying electricity from other uses as they could claim they did not need it... not sure about this but it was something like this...

Oh, I am sure that they do keep some reserve capacities.

However, with more and more renewable energy being used, Mother Nature can throw curve balls that is beyond the usual unexpected problems that utilities have been dealing with.

Somewhere on this forum, I shared some real-life data showing that on a couple of days in the winter, Germany experienced nearly 0 from both solar and wind generation. A big 0! Does this mean that they have to maintain 100% reserve capacity with old generation plants? Perhaps not, if they can import from neighbors.

The problem with maintaining excess capacity is always there, but it is going to be a lot more severe. It's one thing to maintain 5 or 10% excess capacity, but when you need 100%, it takes beaucoup money.