That short relief in grocery aisle seems to be trending backwards again. Eggs @ Aldi is $3 a dozen again (supposedly another avian flu), cocoa prices are at all time high, and energy prices are trending up so I don't see prices of groceries going down anytime soon.
...........
People commonly "dispute" national price trends by using their own anecdotes as "real" and labelling the national figures as faulty.
The error being made should be obvious.
People commonly "dispute" national price trends by using their own anecdotes as "real" and labelling the national figures as faulty.
The error being made should be obvious.
A Trillion Dollars in new deficit spending in the last 6 months
I continue to be a pessimist on the inflation front. I think it will not only be sticky but may in fact rebound and require further tightening (QT or rates).
I think there are four forces that are hard to stop.
1 - Federal deficit spending.
2 - China decoupling. Government policy and companies diversifying their supply chains both result in work being done in higher cost areas.
3 - Low mortgage lock-in. People with 3% mortgages simply cannot sell their homes and move because they can't afford a 7% mortgage. Keeps home supplies tight and prices high which echos into rents.
4 - Work aversion. There is something unhealthy loose in society. I'm not making a broad, "no one wants to work" assertion but I do believe there is real productivity being lost at the margin. Absent a real recession, companies are being cautious about flushing these folks out of their payrolls. Salaries are being paid without full productivity out of the roles.
All four of these problems seem structural and I don't see any of them abating. If the market concludes this is a more likely outcome, we may see a breathtaking drop in equities and, to a lesser extent, fixed income. A lot of this rally has been driven by rate cut expectations. We could easily see Dow 30K again if the herd gets spooked.
I hope I'm wrong.
For me, last week and today Eggs @ Aldi were $1.22 a dozen (large size).
Shows the local priced anecdote is not a national price.
In terms of rent prices, I don't understand how one can expect it to subside (unless landlords are willing to take loss) when housing prices are still strong (increase in property taxes every year), every insurance renewal price is through the roof (pun intended). My increase in the last two years has been 25% and 35% respectively and that's rather mild compared to some of my friends and family where I've heard as high as 50% increase from the previous year.
Count yourself lucky as $3 is the national cpi avg so looks like your area is the outlier.
https://www.cnn.com/2024/04/03/business/egg-prices-cal-maine-bird-flu/index.html
Work aversion.
Like all things its local, our city changed zoning and building laws in the last 5 years and builders are finally building apartments again so we finally saw a 0.5% rent decrease YoY.
We haven't seen the price jumps in insurance yet, but I'm waiting, we renewed in December and it was only a few more dollars which shocked me.
Thats why I find the data fascinating as its so different city to city.
<snip> My auto, home and umbrella policies all renewed over the last few months and I was expecting some big increases and like you mine were actually less than inflation.
I continue to be a pessimist on the inflation front. I think it will not only be sticky but may in fact rebound and require further tightening (QT or rates).
I think there are four forces that are hard to stop.
1 - Federal deficit spending.
2 - China decoupling. Government policy and companies diversifying their supply chains both result in work being done in higher cost areas.
3 - Low mortgage lock-in. People with 3% mortgages simply cannot sell their homes and move because they can't afford a 7% mortgage. Keeps home supplies tight and prices high which echos into rents.
4 - Work aversion. There is something unhealthy loose in society. I'm not making a broad, "no one wants to work" assertion but I do believe there is real productivity being lost at the margin. Absent a real recession, companies are being cautious about flushing these folks out of their payrolls. Salaries are being paid without full productivity out of the roles.
All four of these problems seem structural and I don't see any of them abating. If the market concludes this is a more likely outcome, we may see a breathtaking drop in equities and, to a lesser extent, fixed income. A lot of this rally has been driven by rate cut expectations. We could easily see Dow 30K again if the herd gets spooked.
I hope I'm wrong.
Count yourself lucky as $3 is the national cpi avg so looks like your area is the outlier.
https://www.cnn.com/2024/04/03/business/egg-prices-cal-maine-bird-flu/index.html
Outlier?
Assuming a normal distribution, 50% of areas would be lower (and 50% of areas would be higher).
The quoted article talks about what might happen in the future due to a bird flu outbreak, not the distribution of egg prices.
4 - Work aversion. There is something unhealthy loose in society. I'm not making a broad, "no one wants to work" assertion but I do believe there is real productivity being lost at the margin. Absent a real recession, companies are being cautious about flushing these folks out of their payrolls. Salaries are being paid without full productivity out of the roles.
Outlier - a data point on a graph or in a set of results that is very much bigger or smaller than the next nearest data point.
I would call less than 50% ($1.22) of the current national avg price of eggs of $3 an outlier.
Also it would help if you actually read the article before commenting. This is directly from the article.
The average price of a dozen Grade A large eggs was $3 in February, according to the latest Consumer Price Index, up from around $2 in the fall. While egg prices are down from a record $4.82 in January 2023 — after a widespread bird flu outbreak ravaged farms in the prior year — they’re now at the highest level since April 2023.
I don't think people will get over it as they see those 20% to 50% increases in insurance and home maintenance costs. The hardship is experienced more by the general public than early retirees with nice stashes. That's why it's just big news and a top concern for so many Americans. For me, it's not about a hardship as much as it just means I have to reduce my discretionary spending to make up the difference on the required expenses. But so many people are struggling, and we are still well above the 2% inflation target (core PCE), which was already too high for so many people.Inflation is a fact of life, like death and taxes, it will increase on an annual basis .... get over it.
So it varies at Walmart locations also. They were $2.06 at my Walmart for the cheapest dozen eggs days ago, and just confirmed online as well. But they were close to $3 a few weeks earlier. That's the only price decrease I've seen.Might be, might not be. Without knowing the distribution of egg prices over the US you're eyeballing and guessing.
A quick check shows the price of a dozen large white eggs at the local Wal-Mart is $1.90.
So it varies at Walmart locations also. They were $2.06 at my Walmart for the cheapest dozen eggs days ago, and just confirmed online as well. But they were close to $3 a few weeks earlier. That's the only price decrease I've seen.