COVID-19 Shutdown Exit Strategy?

[audreyh1]

The nursing home employees went on strike on May 4th. I think it made a difference by making the nursing homes provide PPE and put other protections in place. Of course, there was a big delay and the I think the lack of PPE in the nursing homes contributed to the community spread. Going forward I expect the deaths to represent fewer nursing home patients, as a percentage. The death counts will be a better representation of the level of transmission in the community.

We are just getting to a flat curve (7-day average death count) and we are moving to partial open salons and restaurants next week, May 30.

The metric to move to the next opening phase is less than 20% of testing resulting in a positive test. The government controls the number of tests, so increasing the number of tests and allowing anyone to get a test will move the meter toward opening.

I think the for-profit nursing home should cough up the cash to pay for PPE.

PPE in nursing homes need to be a very high priority. Nursing homes can easily cause community spread if you don’t protect the workers which also protects the residents who are most likely to be hospitalized. Also, workers live in the community, and are vulnerable to picking it up in the nursing home and spreading it back to the community. It won’t stay contained in the nursing home.

 

[MichaelB]

To follow up on the UK picture, the following website is one I use to look at the number of cases in my area, but it is also kept up to date with a good selection of graphs and numbers. It also shows the number of deaths over the expected number of deaths at this time of year. (Excess mortality?). This number is much higher than the number of deaths with Covid mentioned on the death certificate.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-51768274

The excess deaths is a good way to estimate the potential mortality rate. The CDC tracks this as well. https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/nvss/vsrr/covid19/excess_deaths.htm

 

[Chuckanut]

Originally Posted by Chuckanut
Our governor wants the death rate to be no more than 1 out of 100,000 before we go to the next phase

I have since been told that the desired ratio is under 10 out of 100,000. All I know is what I read on the Internet. Foolish me.

 

[gwraigty]

Dr. Anthony Fauci says staying closed for too long could cause ‘irreparable damage’

Stay-at-home orders intended to curb the spread of the coronavirus could end up causing “irreparable damage” if imposed for too long, White House health advisor Dr. Anthony Fauci told CNBC on Friday.

“I don’t want people to think that any of us feel that staying locked down for a prolonged period of time is the way to go,” Fauci said

 

[Midpack]

Interesting charts showing how GA, one of the first states to reopen substantially, is doing. Turns out Georgians are staying home almost as much as any other Americans are, regardless of what their Governor's do.

https://youtu.be/2v6TKjpytRk

 

[W2R]

Interesting charts showing how GA, one of the first states to reopen substantially, is doing. Turns out Georgians are staying home almost as much as any other Americans are, regardless of what their Governor's do.

https://youtu.be/2v6TKjpytRk

Interesting!

We re-opened on the May 15th (Phase I only), and something that I did not expect is how much this has helped my mental state. I no longer feel like a prisoner and my life seems so much better even on days when I choose to stay at home.

 

[Midpack]

Interesting!

We re-opened on the May 15th (Phase I only), and something that I did not expect is how much this has helped my mental state. I no longer feel like a prisoner and my life seems so much better even on days when I choose to stay at home.

DW and I are both getting a little weary of being cooped up. We've made a couple trips out just to get out of the house!

 

[Turbo29]

Interesting!

We re-opened on the May 15th (Phase I only), and something that I did not expect is how much this has helped my mental state. I no longer feel like a prisoner and my life seems so much better even on days when I choose to stay at home.

My state too. Even my gym is open but so far have been using my home equipment to work out, it's just easier to walk into the other room than to drive to the gym. Still, I feel much better knowing I could go if I wished.

 

[neihn]

On this I think I tend to the libertarian side. Government should do it's best to educate the people, and people should make up their minds as to the amount of risk they are willing to take. Work, Play, Shop, Eat, you name it. Each has a risk, and each of us has a different tolerance. There are people on here that are ok shopping without PPE, some will only do delivery, some have enough toilet paper to last until the second coming and won't go near a store. I'm ok with all of these for them. They should not have to conform to my standard. I don't think anything good is accomplished by a central government making that decision for us. The curve has been flattened, hospitals are better prepared to treat patients, PPE seems to be in supply, and new treatments are popping up daily. Government should make recommendations, but if the populus is not convinced, in a free society, free people should have a right to be stupid.

Only if the act of stupidity don't affect anyone else. For example, text while driving, under influence of substance while driving, coughing without mask or anything cover when you are sick many more...

 

[MichaelB]

Mod note

Multiple posts centering around Dr Fauci have been removed. Unfortunately, aspects of his role have been dragged into our political discourse. Because of that, discussion of him now will be considered political speech, which community rules request we avoid. The exception to this is the straightforward and direct quoting of public health advisories he makes in his role as director of National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases.

 

[RobLJ]

We've been taking long hikes with a small circle of friends twice a week, but we're lucky to be in Reno with the mountain desert on one side and the Sierras on the other.

I dread when the casinos re-open; here in Northern Nevade we've been on a weeks long plateau with a bubble apparently caused by large inter-family Easter celebrations.

I take what Fauci, Blinx, and other epidemiologists say seriously (in their official capacities or non-official if that's possible); others and politicians not much.

Personally, I'm not going to a baseball game, theater, or church (well, the latter wouldn't happen anyway) or bar or restaurant for a long while, no matter how much they "open up." Y'all can get as cray-cray as you wish, as long as you stay 6 feet away from me and my 87 year old mother.

 

[CardsFan]

Personally, I'm not going to a baseball game, theater, or church (well, the latter wouldn't happen anyway) or bar or restaurant for a long while, no matter how much they "open up." Y'all can get as cray-cray as you wish, as long as you stay 6 feet away from me and my 87 year old mother.

See Bold above: If you would not go there anyway, why include it in your comment?

 

[RobLJ]

Because it's one of the large gathering places where risks go up very high--like casinos (you won't catch me there either).

My father was a minister, so it was one of the most common high risk activities that came to mind. I guess I should have included Tahoe beaches also.

 

[audreyh1]

Interesting charts showing how GA, one of the first states to reopen substantially, is doing. Turns out Georgians are staying home almost as much as any other Americans are, regardless of what their Governor's do.

https://youtu.be/2v6TKjpytRk

Interesting. I definitely noticed more people out in rural GW as small businesses reopened. But obviously people are still limiting their exposure.

 

[Teacher Terry]

Nevada went to phase one 2 weeks ago. The governor said then that casinos would be in phase 3 or 4. Now phase 2 starts June 4 with casinos included. I hope people flood his office with calls and people don’t come. This will be a disaster.

 

[Turbo29]

Nevada went to phase one 2 weeks ago. The governor said then that casinos would be in phase 3 or 4. Now phase 2 starts June 4 with casinos included. I hope people flood his office with calls and people don’t come. This will be a disaster.

People will probably come. Here several of the large tribal casinos re-opened on 5/15. I have a friend who goes and he said that they have been packed.

 

[MRG]

Starting to see the tourists wars heating up here. People are coming from all over and want to believe things are normal. Local folks posting on FB with comments directed to tourists to "go home you're not welcome here" now. County North of here had their first positive case, a tourist brought it with him to share with everyone. Limited healthcare and O2, what could possibly go wrong. I fear people will act stupid when locals start getting sick.

 

[6miths]

I'm sure that the first thing someone who got slightly sick at their rural retreat would do would be to go back to the city for the health care. If they were smart, though clearly that is not a given. Are those counties that have summer homes going to waive taxes this year? I wonder how all the businesses that depend on summer traffic feel. With social distancing and all that shouldn't it be ok?

 

[cathy63]

I'm sure that the first thing someone who got slightly sick at their rural retreat would do would be to go back to the city for the health care. If they were smart, though clearly that is not a given. Are those counties that have summer homes going to waive taxes this year? I wonder how all the businesses that depend on summer traffic feel. With social distancing and all that shouldn't it be ok?

It's difficult. The problem here is the businesses all have capacity limitations now and there's not enough space on the sidewalks for lines to form, so businesses have to shoo away their potential customers and tell them to move along. So even if they depend on summer traffic, they really can't accommodate it right now.

Right now things are o.k. The homes that are owned by Mexican nationals are all empty since they can't cross the border, and a lot of people from Arizona seem to be staying home. It'll be interesting to see what happens as summer progresses.

(We aren't in a rural area, and there's good health care readily available here, but an influx of tourists is still an issue.)

 

[gerntz]

Nevada went to phase one 2 weeks ago. The governor said then that casinos would be in phase 3 or 4. Now phase 2 starts June 4 with casinos included. I hope people flood his office with calls and people don’t come. This will be a disaster.

Depends. Playing slots with no one on either side of you ought to be fine. Surface contact risk is quite small. Now playing card games with folks sitting next to you is a problem. 5 folks at a TX Hold-em table should be fine. Also close-spaced craps & roulette a problem. .

 

[gerntz]

We've rented a house with son & grandkids at Hilton Head for end of June. Has private pool. Net, pool & beach ought to be fine. Restaurants?

 

[brewer12345]

We have a week trip planned to Custer State Park near Mount Rushmore this summer for camping. I would ordinarily think that camping in a travel trailer is relatively low risk, but the idea of being at a potentially crowded campground with people from all over the country really gives me pause. Still pondering what to do.

 

[Chuckanut]

We have a week trip planned to Custer State Park near Mount Rushmore this summer for camping. I would ordinarily think that camping in a travel trailer is relatively low risk, but the idea of being at a potentially crowded campground with people from all over the country really gives me pause. Still pondering what to do.

It’s kind of like driving in the snow. You may be a skilled driver and your car is properly winterized for snow and ice. But the other idiots can still lose control and slide into you.

 

[brewer12345]

It’s kind of like driving in the snow. You may be a skilled driver and your car is properly winterized for snow and ice. But the other idiots can still lose control and slide into you.

Exactly. Being around people has even less attraction as it used to have.

 

[MRG]

I'm sure that the first thing someone who got slightly sick at their rural retreat would do would be to go back to the city for the health care. If they were smart, though clearly that is not a given. Are those counties that have summer homes going to waive taxes this year? I wonder how all the businesses that depend on summer traffic feel. With social distancing and all that shouldn't it be ok?

Exactly, many have a right to be here. Renters not so much as of this moment.

Come to a place where there's 8 hospital beds in the county and go home... infecting N others. They go back to where they are from where they have more beds and oxygen, after infecting the area.

I sincerely hope I am wrong and this doesn't end like most pandemic movies where "they brought it here".