The Electric Vehicle Thread

[Montecfo]

I gather you aren't able to charge at home? Many EV owners do so, it makes some of your concerns non issues. And I am sure you've seen the articles showing the incidence of ICE car fires is much higher than EVs (both on a per thousand basis).

https://electrek.co/2022/01/12/gove...e-significantly-more-prone-to-fires-than-evs/

https://www.forbes.com/sites/neilwi...uired-for-definitive-verdict/?sh=5c226ba2327e

Yes I could. But does not eliminate the concern. I would not buy a car I had to limit to around town.

Battery fires burn hotter, longer and harder to put out. Also more likely to occur in your garage during charging which means then your house is involved. My bedroom is over the garage.

Less frequent but much more serious.

 

[ken830]

Also technological change as current (lol) crop of EVs are likely to be outdated as tech improves.

I bought a Model S in early 2013. Buying a new model in its first months of introduction from a new manufacturer would be the worse possible risk for buying "outdated tech." In some respects, that ended up being true... That early car didn't even have parking sensors. And in the few following years, Tesla introduced larger batteries, dual motor AWD, Autopilot, faster CPU, etc. But you know what, the car still felt pretty modern a decade later because it was getting frequent firmware updates. After 10 years, I would look back at some old photos and barely remember what the car's UI looked and felt like. I forgot that there are so many new features and functionality I had gotten used to but didn't have when I first got the car. And after 10 years, it still had 90% of the original range and every bit of the same silent performance as day 1...

I got a 2018 Model 3 about 5 years after the Model S and it felt like a big step from My Model S, but we just got a 2022 Model X about 5 years after the Model 3, and the technological step up didn't feel very large at all. So, I would say tech-wise it's a pretty shallow rate of change now. We are at the 4th or 5th generation of the modern EV, so this slowing down is expected.

 

[Montecfo]

I bought a Model S in early 2013. Buying a new model in its first months of introduction from a new manufacturer would be the worse possible risk for buying "outdated tech." In some respects, that ended up being true... That early car didn't even have parking sensors. And in the few following years, Tesla introduced larger batteries, dual motor AWD, Autopilot, faster CPU, etc. But you know what, the car still felt pretty modern a decade later because it was getting frequent firmware updates. After 10 years, I would look back at some old photos and barely remember what the car's UI looked and felt like. I forgot that there are so many new features and functionality I had gotten used to but didn't have when I first got the car. And after 10 years, it still had 90% of the original range and every bit of the same silent performance as day 1...



I got a 2018 Model 3 about 5 years after the Model S and it felt like a big step from My Model S, but we just got a 2022 Model X about 5 years after the Model 3, and the technological step up didn't feel very large at all. So, I would say tech-wise it's a pretty shallow rate of change now. We are at the 4th or 5th generation of the modern EV, so this slowing down is expected.

Well the battery tech needs to improve dramatically. If it doesn't this will remain a niche market as I see it.

 

[Midpack]

Yes I could. But does not eliminate the concern. I would not buy a car I had to limit to around town.

Battery fires burn hotter, longer and harder to put out. Also more likely to occur in your garage during charging which means then your house is involved. My bedroom is over the garage.

Less frequent but much more serious.

If you charge at home, I wouldn't consider a car with a 300 mile range (every day if you'd like) "limited" to around town. But if you're not comfortable with EVs, it doesn't matter.

 

[ken830]

Well the battery tech needs to improve dramatically. If it doesn't this will remain a niche market as I see it.

I understand your position. What's "dramatic" though? 2-3x? One order of magnitude? For a vehicle that can be "fueled" at home, 1,000-2,000 mile range with recharging in 5 minutes isn't going to be required for mass adoption when we have 400 miles of range and ~20 minute (to 70-80%) charging today with incremental improvements getting us to 500-600 miles of range and equivalent ~20 minute charging within the decade.

The trend is clear to me. Even if 40-50% of vehicles are electric, the gas station business will be difficult to sustain and as fuel stations close, the "convenience" of fueling a gasoline vehicle will errode and further accelerate EV adoption.

It's nearly universal that owning an EV means never wanting to drive a gasoline vehicle again. It's basically a one way street. People will begin to expect or demand charging infrastructure where they live and that's not an insurmountable problem. We have grid power infrastructure everywhere and it's essentially getting two conductors out to where the vehicle is parked. Will take some time, but not insurmountable.

We may see dramatic improvement in range and recharging if there is a breakthrough technology, but I think we're more likely to see incremental improvements and a settling for "enough" range in the ~400-600 mile range coupled with the incremental improvements concentrated on energy density (mass and volumetric) to bring BOM and manufacturing costs down.

The market may prove one of us wrong. Either way, it will be entertaining to see it play out.

 

[joesxm3]

I have only had my Tesla Y a couple months, but I am having to force myself to drive the Acura once in a while.

I am on my second month of FSDb and getting addicted to the car driving itself. I am starting to worry that I might forget how to drive the 20 year old stick shift Acura.

 

[ken830]

I have only had my Tesla Y a couple months, but I am having to force myself to drive the Acura once in a while.

I am on my second month of FSDb and getting addicted to the car driving itself. I am starting to worry that I might forget how to drive the 20 year old stick shift Acura.

LOL. It's like riding a bicycle, you will never forget. I still feel it will be fun to drive a high-performance manual transmission car again someday, but that would be for fun on occasion. A novelty. Probably when I'm rich enough to buy a gasoline vehicle as a collector's item for fun on the weekends like how I imagine the well-to-do own horses.

 

[Montecfo]

I dislike risk of a hot hard to extinguish fire in my home. I'm funny that way.

The rest of my points remain unaddressed.

Better, faster charging suggests new battery tech. And tech obsolescence as I said.

Range, refueling locations, time to refuel, grid capacity and robustness.

And we have seen what happens when power outages hit all electric homes. It is not pretty. Having an electric car would add to woes.

And with our grid and some ill advised moves, power outages appear to be here to stay.

 

[ken830]

I dislike risk of a hot hard to extinguish fire in my home. I'm funny that way.

Understandable. But how do you mitigate that risk with the rest of your electronic devices with LiIon batteries (sure, they're smaller and less energy dense, but they also have much less sophisticated charge monitoring and control with no real thermal management) that are located closer to where you actually live and sleep? I'm looking around me and see cell phones, USB power banks, tablets, laptops, an e-reader, remote controls, VR headsets, flashlights, RC cars, a quad-copter, Steam Deck, Nintendo Switch, PS5 controllers, headphones just in my living room alone. And this is not asked rhetorically or mockingly. I'm genuinely curious if you do anything special that most of us do not. Maybe I need to adopt some if you have good suggestions that are appropriately-matched with the level of risk.

I think the biggest fire-risk in my home is thermal runaway of my 3D printer (and maybe a future laser engraver), so I try not to leave it unattended for long, but most prints take many hours and so even though I'm usually up until 5-6am, I do have to sleep eventually. I should get one of those fire blankets.

The rest of my points remain unaddressed.

Better, faster charging suggests new battery tech. And tech obsolescence as I said.

Range, refueling locations, time to refuel, grid capacity and robustness.

You never answered... how much better and how much faster are you looking for before you think it will no longer be "niche?" What's your definition of "dramatic?"

 

[Montecfo]

The batteries in my house are small and pose little risk of a home engulfing conflagration. And I have far fewer lion electronics. VR headset, is that like a Viewmaster? Mine just uses ordinary light.

You OTOH sounds like a fire marshall's dream!

You might want to get one of those fire chief frequent user punch cards.

 

[ken830]

The batteries in my house are small and pose little risk of a home engulfing conflagration. And I have far fewer lion electronics. VR headset, is that like a Viewmaster? Mine just uses ordinary light.

You OTOH sounds like a fire marshall's dream!

You might want to get one of those fire chief frequent user punch cards.

I DO like my toys!

I was going to counter with your smart phone's confined pouch cell is probably several orders of magnitude more likely to catch fire next to your head while you sleep than a Tesla's encased pack of cylindrical cells... but seeing as you brought up "Viewmaster," I'm not sure I should be so bold as to assume you have a smart phone!

But seriously, I think if fires are really statistically significant, I would have seen them reflected in my insurance rates already. So far, so good. I do have a security camera in the garage that should be able to detect and notify me if something goes up in flames. I should probably put in a heat detector too. And I will get a fire blanket and keep it next to the 3D printer.

 

[Montecfo]

[emoji23] I DO like my toys!



I was going to counter with your smart phone's confined pouch cell is probably several orders of magnitude more likely to catch fire next to your head while you sleep than a Tesla's encased pack of cylindrical cells... but seeing as you brought up "Viewmaster," I'm not sure I should be so bold as to assume you have a smart phone!



But seriously, I think if fires are really statistically significant, I would have seen them reflected in my insurance rates already. So far, so good. I do have a security camera in the garage that should be able to detect and notify me if something goes up in flames. I should probably put in a heat detector too. And I will get a fire blanket and keep it next to the 3D printer.

Nothing near my head.

You are an early adopter, bleeding edge type. Good for you. Of course most folks do not embrace tech for its own sake. NTTAWWT.

Most issues unaddressed.

 

[Koolau]

I did lose an old friend to a cell phone charging fire. It happens.

 

[ken830]

I did lose an old friend to a cell phone charging fire. It happens.

Very sorry to hear this.

Wonder if there's anything to learn from the incident besides not charging our phones next to our heads or anything highly flammable.

 

[explanade]

Read an article about how fires from e-bike batteries are a growing problem in NYC.

There are over 60,000 delivery workers in the city. Many of them have adopted e-Bikes but not e-bikes from reputable companies which use UL certified batteries but some cheap Chinese no-name brands which have poor battery charging management systems.

So these have caught on fire when charging or even if the casing is compromised somehow. Some people charge these batteries outside their home, running long extension cords outside.

They are trying to get funding for public charging situations. There are programs to help some buy safer e-bikes but it’s only a couple hundred towards purchases which would run $4-5k or more.

 

[Koolau]

Very sorry to hear this.

Wonder if there's anything to learn from the incident besides not charging our phones next to our heads or anything highly flammable.

That would be at least one thing to learn as that's exactly what happened. (His adult son died in the fire too.) I never leave the phone on a charger when I'm not wide awake and close by.

I've mentioned elsewhere that, many years ago, I stopped by my parents' house and my dad, as usual, was asleep in front of the TV (which was gloriously in flame!) This stuff does happen and we can't just trust that it won't.

 

[ken830]

That would be at least one thing to learn as that's exactly what happened. (His adult son died in the fire too.) I never leave the phone on a charger when I'm not wide awake and close by.

Oh my gosh, that's tragic.

I've mentioned elsewhere that, many years ago, I stopped by my parents' house and my dad, as usual, was asleep in front of the TV (which was gloriously in flame!) This stuff does happen and we can't just trust that it won't.

The TV burst into flames? Must be a CRT? That's crazy...

 

[Koolau]

Oh my gosh, that's tragic.



The TV burst into flames? Must be a CRT? That's crazy...

The TV was one of those record player/radio/TV all-in-a-console units. No idea why it caught fire. Dad and I simply picked the thing up and set it out in the snow. Cleaning the wall behind was a challenge due to all the burnt plastic and wiring insulation. I think we used PlayDough (which was originally a wall paper cleaner.)

Returning you now...

 

[joesxm3]

I have an older dehumidifier that blew a circuit board and I had to jump the compressor power wire. It ran fine but all the time and I only used it as an extra. But this week it made fan noise, stopped with a red light and smelled burnt. So I ordered a new one.

But all this fire talk has me worried about the dehumidifier I normally run sealed up in the crawl space under my den.

Having my furnace in the garage, I was more worried about my Acura or lawn mower catching fire than my Tesla.

 

[Montecfo]

I dislike risk of a hot hard to extinguish fire in my home. I'm funny that way.

The rest of my points remain unaddressed.

Better, faster charging suggests new battery tech. And tech obsolescence as I said.

Range, refueling locations, time to refuel, grid capacity and robustness.

And we have seen what happens when power outages hit all electric homes. It is not pretty. Having an electric car would add to woes.

And with our grid and some ill advised moves, power outages appear to be here to stay.

Another issue that has been brushed aside is the geopolitical risk in battery production. China controls two thirds of lithium and cobalt, 60 pct of aluminum and 80 pct of polysilicon (solar panels).

They just restricted the export of two minerals needed for chip production. We just went through a supply chain disaster post pandemic. China could create new ones at any second, which is why we have a push for reshoring and rightshoring.

I am concerned that if I buy an EV I am just placing more cards on the wrong side of the table and helping make US markets more vulnerable to governments which have proven to be unfriendly at best.

I respect and am impressed with how happy most folks seem to be with their EVs.

But the above gives me pause.

 

[Midpack]

I dislike risk of a hot hard to extinguish fire in my home. I'm funny that way.

The rest of my points remain unaddressed.

Better, faster charging suggests new battery tech. And tech obsolescence as I said.

Range, refueling locations, time to refuel, grid capacity and robustness.

And we have seen what happens when power outages hit all electric homes. It is not pretty. Having an electric car would add to woes.

And with our grid and some ill advised moves, power outages appear to be here to stay.

Another issue that has been brushed aside is the geopolitical risk in battery production. China controls two thirds of lithium and cobalt, 60 pct of aluminum and 80 pct of polysilicon (solar panels).

They just restricted the export of two minerals needed for chip production. We just went through a supply chain disaster post pandemic. China could create new ones at any second, which is why we have a push for reshoring and rightshoring.

I am concerned that if I buy an EV I am just placing more cards on the wrong side of the table and helping make US markets more vulnerable to governments which have proven to be unfriendly at best.

I respect and am impressed with how happy most folks seem to be with their EVs.

But the above gives me pause.

I'd offer some counterpoint, but clearly that won't move the needle...

 

[joesxm3]

I just created a new thread to talk about gas vehicles and why they are superior to electric vehicles.

Maybe this thread can get back on track.

 

[Montecfo]

For me it is not about favoring one over the other, it is what is the value proposition?

 

[Andre1969]

Car rental is completely back to normal and prices have come down considerably and plenty of competition. This year I’ve been seeing the cheapest rental prices in a very long time.

This may still vary from region to region. A few months ago, a friend of mine needed a rental when his car went into the body shop. They only had two available. One was a Nissan Leaf and the other was a Mitsubishi Mirage. I took him to the place to get his rental car. He didn't know what a Nissan Leaf was, but when I said "Electric car" he blurted out "HELL NO" without even thinking. So, the Mirage, it was.

However, when we went out to the parking lot, we had to walk past the Leaf, to get to the Mirage. I'll admit, the Leaf wasn't a bad looking car, and seemed nicer and more substantial. When we saw the Mirage, I started humming circus/calliope music, because it looked like a freaking little clown car!

Anyway, he took the Mirage, begrudgingly. The guy at the rental car place said some cars were due back in a few days, and he could probably get him into something bigger. My friend jumped at that offer, and ended up with an Altima.

Now, it's exceedingly rare that I've needed a rental car, so I don't know what "normal" would be. But I guess to me, the idea of being able to get your choice of whatever size class of car your insurance company will pay for and not having to settle would be "normal."

Although, that was a few months ago, and perhaps my friend's experience is no longer "normal" either.

 

[audreyh1]

Now, it's exceedingly rare that I've needed a rental car, so I don't know what "normal" would be. But I guess to me, the idea of being able to get your choice of whatever size class of car your insurance company will pay for and not having to settle would be "normal."

Although, that was a few months ago, and perhaps my friend's experience is no longer "normal" either.

In the case of immediate rental - it’s often quite unpredictable at non-airport locations and was before Covid. Reserving a car in advance makes a big difference.